Outlook for 2007: Need for Peace Trumps Grim Reality

~January 2007~

By Corinne Whitlatch, Executive Director

These are the final two years of George W. Bush’s presidency. That’s when presidents traditionally seek to shape their legacy for the history books. It’s now or never for President Bush to reverse the likelihood of being judged as having squandered international support for the United States and leaving the Middle East in flames.

Right now, those flames are hot and high and there is little confidence in the fire fighters. Both Palestinians and Israelis are faced with deeply divided and weak political leadership. The Democratic Party’s takeover of Congress resulted from voter rejection of the Bush Administration’s policies, most notably the untenable and tragic mess in Iraq and Afghanistan. The leaders of Arab state allies – especially Jordan’s King Abdullah and Egypt’s President Mubarak – confront wary publics increasingly emboldened to protest their rulers aiding and abetting the United States. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, who was deeply engaged in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, has been replaced by newcomer, Ban Ki-moon. Tony Blair, who pushed his friend in the White House to deal with the festering conflict, is ending his term as Britain’s Prime Minister.

When political leadership is weak, the potential for the public to sway events and opinion increases. In 2007, Churches for Middle East Peace will be an unrelenting and principled advocate for peace and justice, amplifying the voices of its churches, members and congregations and working cooperatively with Christian evangelicals, Jews, Arabs and secular peacemakers. We are many and we are made stronger by your participation.

Palestinian Political Crisis

The Patriarchs and Bishops of Jerusalem, in despair over the Palestinian factional divisions, have offered to help mediate the rising tensions. On January 12 they warned against the drastic impact of a civil war: “It is vital to bring a real sense of unity in government; to unite the security forces; remove arms from our streets and encourage the Israeli and Palestinian leaders to return to the negotiating table.”

The US-led strategy to bring down the elected Hamas government by cutting off economic aid has weakened the moderates and contributed to a humanitarian and political crisis. Infighting between Fatah and Hamas is hurting them at home and abroad.

Even if Fatah, with its military force bolstered by an infusion of special aid, were to defeat Hamas, militants would likely resume suicide bombings and increase rocket attacks. A unity government, with President Abbas handling negotiations and Hamas willing to abide by any agreement ratified by popular referendum, is the clearest path to progress.

Defiant and Divided Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Olmert has so far been unwilling to follow through on his commitments to ease daily life by removing checkpoints and releasing prisoners. The transfer of $100 million in tax revenues, of over $500 million due, may help Abbas.

In direct defiance of its commitment to the US, and as Secretary Rice began the Administration’s new push for Mideast peace, Israel announced the building of new housing in Maale Adumin, a large settlement strategically located between East Jerusalem and Jericho, and a new settlement in the Jordan Valley.

Olmert and his Defense Minister Amir Peretz, following the summer debacle in Lebanon, have astonishingly low approval ratings. The line-up of would-be successors (Bibi Netanyahu, Ehud Barak and Ami Ayalon) is enlivened by the inclusion of the popular Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni.

Hop, Skip and Jump

It is Ms. Livni who made the first move in restarting a peace process. She proposed going directly to the second phase of the Road Map and setting up an interim Palestinian state with provisional borders. Left undone would be the requirements of phase one – a crackdown on militant groups by Palestinians and a halt by Israel of settlement activity. Abbas responded with a firm no, and offered a counter proposal that already has the backing of Egypt and Jordan – jumping to final status talks on creating a permanent Palestinian state.

Diplomats who have met with Rice are reported to be impressed by her personal commitment to try for a breakthrough this year. Progress toward peace will require advocates’ pressure on policymakers to take real steps that can resolve the conflict, end the occupation and gain recognition and security for Israel while creating a sovereign, viable state for the Palestinians and a shared Jerusalem.

Looking for Light

The 2002 Arab Peace Initiative is considered by many to be a guiding light. Secretary Rice has expressed particular interest in the plan initiated by the Saudi Crown Prince, now King Abdullah. His plan outlines a comprehensive “land for peace” agreement that would end the occupation and lead to the normalization of relations with Israel.

Considering the Bush Administration’s need to repair relations with so-called moderate Arabs, the incentive to take seriously this Arab diplomatic initiative is strong. While President Bush has downplayed the Iraq Study Group’s (ISG) report, their conclusion can’t be dismissed. “The United States will not be able to achieve its goals in the Middle East unless the United States deals directly with the Arab-Israeli conflict.”

The ISG’s recommendation that the United States hold direct talks with Syria as a necessary component of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace was better received in Israel and by Senators John Kerry (D-MA), Chris Dodd (D-CT), Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Arlen Specter (R-PA) who visited Damascus in December than by President Bush. Despite pressure from high-level Israelis, Olmert refuses to defy his chief backer and respond positively to Syrian President Basher Assad’s call for renewed peace talks.

In addition to the legacy of President Bush and Secretary Rice’s tentative steps, there is a glimmer of light in the broadening debate that is taking place now in the United States. The year-long battle over the Palestinian Anti-Terrorism Act made clear that AIPAC does not speak for all American Jews. M.J. Rosenberg, of the Israel Policy Forum, wrote of the downfall of the House’s AIPAC-written legislation, “pro-Israel groups, church groups, pro- peace Arab-Americans – are now a fixture on the Congressional scene. One victory won’t take us to the Superbowl. But it’s a start.”

Advocacy Action

The new Congress is off with a gallop. Both parties are eager to show constituents that they deserve their vote in 2008 and everyone is watching the President and Secretary Rice in anticipation of bold actions. The Congress and Administration need to know that there is both institutional (meaning the churches themselves) and public (meaning yourself) support for a just peace between Israel and the Palestinians. The letter to President Bush, included in this publication, was signed by a remarkably broad array of Christian leadership. The letter was delivered to Congressional offices by CMEP, but needs the endorsement of constituents. Click here for the full text of the letter.

Call the Washington offices of your Representative and two Senators. To talk or leave a message for Congressional foreign policy aides, call the office directly or via the Capitol switchboard at 202-224-3121. If you have developed a relationship with an aide, send a brief email.
Say you are calling to endorse the January 23 Church leaders’ letter to President Bush urging Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. Ask that the Senator/Representative work with the Administration toward negotiations that guarantee two viable and secure states, Israel and Palestine, living side-by- side and sharing Jerusalem.

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