The president started fast, in part motivated by the need to garner international help for the Iraq morass. As Congress was rushing to finish the lame duck session and get home, the President notified the lawmakers that the administration would bypass all congressional restrictions on aid to the Palestinian Authority and give $20 million directly to them to pay salaries. Concurrently, the White House initiated, and the  Senate unanimously agreed to, a leadership-sponsored resolution supporting the joint statement of President Bush  and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. They recognized that much of the newly opened opportunity would depend on how the administration responded in the first weeks of the post-Arafat era. Clearly, the President has decided to spend "political capital" to help the moderate Palestinian leadership in its contest over political succession as an essential step along the Road Map peace process.

On the Road Again with Rice
Now that George W. Bush has been reelected president, the dormant Road Map peace plan- developed by the U.S., Russia, the U.N. and the European Union-is again the frame of reference for deliberations about U.S. pressure on Israel and the Palestinians. The plan, developed in 2002 and launched in March 2003, lays out the goal - "an independent, democratic, and viable Palestinian state living side-by-side in peace and security with Israel and its other neighbors. The settlement will resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict, and end the occupation that began in 1967, based on the foundations of the Madrid conference, the principle of land for peace, UNSCRs 242, 338 and 1397" (for this and other documents, go to "resources" at www.cmep.org)

Bush is consolidating his power, eliminating dissent and debate, by placing political appointees in key positions. Secretary of State Powell disagreed with the administration, wanting a harder line with Sharon, with little effect. But no one in the Administration is closer to the President than Condoleezza Rice, who will move from head of National Security Council to the top slot at State.  Ron Kampas of the Jewish Telegraphic Agency (JTA) posits that "a tighter ship in Washington means an easier ride when the two nations are in agreement - and more pointed pressure when they are not."

Diana Buttu, a legal adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team, told JTA that Rice's reputation as adamantly pro-Israel may be over- blown. Buttu said that Rice "got it" when the P.A. team presented her with a map showing Jewish settlement in the West Bank and a projected route of the security fence that would have sliced up the area. As a result, intense U.S. pressure led Israel to change the route, bringing portions of the separation barrier closer to the Green Line (the pre-1967 boundary of Israel).

During his reelection campaign, while courting supporters of Israel among Jewish and conservative Christian voters in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, President Bush didn't talk of Israel's need to make concessions. But Rice's speech to a national AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) meeting in Florida a few days before the election gave notice that Israel must "take steps to support the emergence of a viable Palestinian state." Rice's relationship with Brent Scowcroft, her mentor and a close associate of the President's father, is remembered. Scowcroft , in a Washington Post op-ed on November 12, made extraordinary policy recommendations: "The United States should insist that Israel stop construction of its wall on the West Bank and mirror its withdrawal from Gaza with the evacuation of the West Bank. In return, the wall and Israeli troops would be replaced by an international force, principally European or perhaps NATO troops."  

Election on Fast Track
Palestinian elections, and the preparation process, fit neatly into the Road Map plan. The target date for the establishment of the state of Palestine was an opening question in the new debate. Palestinian Prime Minister Qurei pointed to the Road Map's vision of a state in 2005, saying that President Bush's projection of a Palestinian state by 2009, "will allow Israel to continue building settlements and swallowing more Palestinian land" to build the wall.

For the elections, Palestinians will need to move freely throughout the West Bank and Gaza, requiring Israel to remove roadblocks and military checkpoints, withdraw troops from the territories and end military incursions. The involvement of international monitors is certain and will bring the long-sought presence of third party observers to the occupied land. It is expected that some members of the House of Representatives will join the National Democratic Institute contingent. The election agenda should start a flow of economic and technical support for the elections from the U.S., the E.U. and Arab states, which will alleviate the worsening poverty of the Palestinians. 

Voting by Palestinians in East Jerusalem is essential for elections to be deemed legitimate. How this is done will provide an early test of U.S. diplomatic resolve. Though Jerusalemites have the same legal status as Palestinians in the rest of the Occupied Territories, Israel resists an election modality that weakens its claim of sovereignty over the Jerusalem neighborhoods and suburbs that it annexed. Voter registration concluded on October 13, but Israel did not allow registration in East Jerusalem. In 1996, East Jerusalem Palestinians went to the post office, and inserted their ballots, for president and for the legislative council, into separate ballot boxes, which were taken to Jerusalem suburbs for counting. Ahmed Qurei, the current prime minister, is an elected Jerusalem representative as is Hanan Ashrawi, a Christian woman popular in the United States.

With President Arafat gone, competition within the nationalist movement between "young guard" and "old guard," and between nationalists and Islamists could result in internal infighting if the election process is not seen as credible. Certainly there needs to be an internal Palestinian agreement among all the factions on a ceasefire during the campaign and on election-day itself.  And, of course, the Israelis need to respect this internal ceasefire by observing a cease fire of their own and by stopping incursions and assassinations. There are early reports that Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom recognizes that new Palestinian leaders will not be able to halt terrorism "with the push of a button" and that an end of incitement to violence in its mass media would demonstrate good intentions.  A decision by Israel to release political prisoners would provide immediate evidence to all factions of the benefit of a new Palestinian leadership and a new strategic approach to Israel.

Let us keep in mind that, however important Palestinian elections are, the underlying causes of the conflict must be addressed. Public confidence that the occupation will end is crucial to the success of Palestinian governance and stopping violence. Transforming public opinion toward hope for peace, along with popular recognition that violence against Israeli citizens blocks peacemaking, is the best way to prevent terrorism.

Expanding Settlements
The Road Map's demand that Israel "immediately" dismantle settlement outposts and freeze all settlement activity, including the "natural growth" of settlements has been ignored and settlements have grown. Peace Now, an Israeli group that monitors settlements, has documented continued expansion of settlements and outposts, including settlements designated to be evacuated under the Gaza disengagement plan. Expansion includes new homes, roads and farm land.

Despite the fact that Israeli ministries have funded the establishment and maintenance of settlement outposts, the U.S. government has failed in 2004 to deduct sums for Israeli government investments in the occupied territories from the amount of the U.S. loan guarantees made available to Israel. Continued tolerance by the Bush Administration of Israel's non-implementation of the Road Map's clear directive regarding settlements would give dangerous signals to Palestinians and Israelis that Mr. Bush's support of peacemaking is only rhetorical.

The President will need to show quickly that he means business. Without visible changes on the ground, neither Palestinians nor the international community will be convinced. Indicators would be deductions from the amount of U.S. loan guarantees and insisting that Israel comply with the Road Map's requirements relative to other settlements and outposts in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. In the April 2004 exchange of letters, P.M. Sharon committed to evacuate the unauthorized outposts. But the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv reports that Israel has failed to keep its promise. Also, firm action by the President would strengthen P.M. Sharon's hand against the fierce opposition of the settler movement to the evacuation of Gaza settlements.

Support for the Administration serving as a credible, evenhanded broker came from key U.S. Jewish leaders, in a letter to Ms. Rice organized by the Israel Policy Forum. The signers asserted that "this is the right time for Israel to fulfill its commitments to stop settlement activity."  Rabbi Eric Yoffie, president of the Union for Reform Judaism, and Rabbi Jerome Epstein, executive vice president of The United Synagogue of Conservative Judaism, were among the more than 70 signers. 

Gaza Disengagement
P.M. Sharon's plan to vacate settlers from Gaza and a few settlements in the northern West Bank began as a unilateral move disconnected from the Road Map. But in this new political climate, the Gaza Disengagement plan, now stumbling through Israel's political maze, could be a positive first step, but only if it is a FIRST step followed by negotiations toward disengagement from the West Bank as well, and an independent, viable state based on UN resolutions. Palestinians will not be pacified by a Palestinian state composed only of Gaza and part of the northern West Bank, severed from East Jerusalem, with Israel sealing the borders and denying Gaza access to a seaport and an airport.  The Arab states and people would reject such an outcome, ending the comprehensive resolution that offers Israel security.
The grand excuse of P.M. Sharon, that Israel had no partner for peace with Arafat in power, has evaporated.  Now, new Palestinian leadership might see opportunity instead of conspiracy in the disengagement plan and engage in negotiations, with Quartet support, on the withdrawal. Rather than the feared aftermath of anarchy in Gaza, it is now feasible that the Palestinian Authority can rebuild its security apparatus and consolidate authority if Israel stops military incursions, house demolitions and assassinations in Gaza.

Unless there is recognition that political negotiations will lead to the end of the occupation and a viable Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, the Palestinian elections-key to the President's ambitions for democracy-will not bring an end to the conflict.

SUGGESTED ACTION:

Administration:  Keep in mind that it is the White House that has the authority to make and carry out foreign policy. All signals are that now, in his second term, President Bush is ready to engage in an Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The White House needs evidence of support and encouragement from citizens. As we know, this President places great emphasis on faith-based advocacy, so reference to your Christianity is suitable, and a useful counter to the lobbying of Christian Zionists.

There are many issues and principles that could and must be brought to the attention of policymakers. Churches for Middle East Peace addresses many aspects of the requirements of a just peace in letters and meetings with the Administration, as do many of the leaders of the U.S. churches in the CMEP coalition. However, the ordinary citizen advocate is wise to focus each message on a few specific points. One way that public opinion is measured is by tabulating communications to the White House. Call the White House comment line 202-456-1111 or send an email to president@whitehouse.gov with the following message:

President Bush's support for Palestinian elections and his commitment to a Palestinian state living at peace with Israel is good news.  I appeal to the President to make clear that East Jerusalem must be part of the state of Palestine for it to be viable. Hope for peace in the Holy Land and a shared Jerusalem would be a wonderful Christmas gift for the nation and the world.

Congress:  Congress can either encourage or block the Administration's initiatives. The White House is likely to look to the Senate for congressional backing, where the Majority and Minority Leaders were quickly called into service on November 19 to sponsor a resolution commending the Bush-Blair joint statement. There are a number of Senators, both Republican and Democratic, who are serious about foreign policy and recognize the dangers and opportunities of the present moment for Israel and the Palestinians. This time, before and in the opening weeks of the new session in January, is opportune to organize a meeting with your senators at one of their state offices. At a face-to-face meeting, additional issues can be discussed, such as the importance of freezing settlements and not allowing the separation barrier to take Palestinian land. Emphasize that a negotiated two-state resolution is good for Israel, the Palestinians and the people of the United States.

For both your senators and representative, a Christmas card with your handwritten message is a creative mode of advocacy. Mail your card - a Bethlehem crèche scene would be perfect - with your note to their local office or Washington office.  Suggested messages:

1.) Encourage Congress to support the elections in Palestine and to do everything it can to help a new Palestinian government succeed and provide hope to both Israelis and Palestinians of a peaceful future.

2.) Write that in this season of peace, you believe that the most important step towards ending terrorism in the world is an even-handed settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.