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1. Post-Palestinian Election Reality: Prospects for Peace Uncertain, Long-Term Goal Remains the Same
2. The World Weighs In: Responses from the US, Quartet, Israel and the Arab world
3. Holy Land & International Christian Leaders Highlight Democracy, Peace & Religious Freedom
4. Analyses of Election Results & Observations
5. Jerusalem News

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   1. post-palestinian election reality: prospects for peace uncertain, long-term goal remains the same

Few expected the stunning Hamas victory in the Palestinian legislative elections and policymakers are now assessing what effect the outcome of the elections will have on prospects for peace.  The elections themselves were genuinely free, fair and competitive, but the result, given Hamas' use of terrorism and refusal to recognize Israel, is cause for serious concern. With the Israeli elections upcoming in March and the Palestinians’ process of forming a government not yet begun, many view the next two months as a time to “wait and see.”  A host of forecasts are being offered including: a shut down of any peace process, unilateral steps but no end of conflict, an opening of negotiations through the PLO or a third party, or progress following a moderation of Hamas now that is confronted with the responsibilities of governing.  In this complex time, it is vital that the US remain engaged and promote policies that empower the moderate Palestinian leadership and populace, urge the transformation of Hamas' actions and policies toward Israel and prepare the way for bringing Israel and the Palestinians to the negotiating table.  A negotiated two-state solution, with a secure Israel and a viable state of Palestine remains the goal.  Below are links to a number of commentaries and resources dealing with this new reality and the uncertainties it brings along with it. 

“A Political Tsunami”, M.J. Rosenberg, IPF Friday (Israel Policy Forum), January 27, 2006

http://www.ipforum.org/display.cfm?id=6&Sub=15&dis=2

“Encourage Palestinian Pragmatism”, Rafi Dajani (American Taskforce on Palestine), Orlando Sentinel,
January 30, 2006

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/opinion/orl-danani3006jan30,0,2626076.story?coll=orl-opinion-headlines

“Enter Hamas: The Challenges of Political Integration”, Middle East Report N°49, International Crisis Group, January 18, 2006

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=3886&l=1

“Getting Real With Hamas”, Nathan J. Brown, Foreign Policy.com, February, 2006

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3360

   2. The World Weighs In: Responses from the US, Quartet, Israel and the Arab world

Below are the key immediate statements/responses from the US, Middle East Quartet, Israel and Arab world to the Palestinian elections. 

“Press Conference of President Bush”, Office of the Press Secretary, January 26, 2006

“…Peace is never dead, because people want peace. I believe -- and that's why I articulated a two-state solution early in my administration, so that -- as a vision for people to work toward, a solution that recognized that democracy yields peace. And the best hope for peace in the Middle East is two democracies living side-by-side.  So the Palestinians had an election yesterday, and the results of which remind me about the power of democracy.  You see, when you give people the vote, you give people a chance to express themselves at the polls -- and if they're unhappy with the status quo, they'll let you know…Obviously, people were not happy with the status quo. The people are demanding honest government. The people want services. They want to be able to raise their children in an environment in which they can get a decent education and they can find health care…On the other hand, I don't see how you can be a partner in peace if you advocate the destruction of a country as part of your platform. And I know you can't be a partner in peace if you have a -- if your party has got an armed wing. The elections just took place. We will watch very carefully about the formation of the government. But I will continue to remind people about what I just said, that if your platform is the destruction of Israel, it means you're not a partner in peace. And we're interested in peace. I talked to Condi twice this morning. She called President Abbas. She also is going to have a conference call today about the Quartet -- with the Quartet, about how to keep the process on the road to peace…”

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/01/20060126.html

“Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice: Statement on Palestinian Elections”, Remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 26, 2006

“…While we await the confirmation of those final results from the Palestinian elections, we've seen the predictions regarding the Palestinian Legislative Council elections. We offer our congratulations to President Abbas and the Palestinian people on an election process that was peaceful and free of violence and, by all accounts, fair and where there was very heavy turnout of the Palestinian population.  The Palestinian people have apparently voted for change, but we believe that their aspirations for peace and a peaceful life remain unchanged. Those aspirations can only be met through a two-state solution, which requires a renunciation of violence and turning away from terrorism and accepting the right of Israel to exist and the disarmament of militias. As we have said, you cannot have one foot in politics and the other in terror. Our position on Hamas has therefore not changed.  I have spoken to President Abbas today, who was elected by the Palestinian people on a platform of peace. The Palestinians have a constitutional process that they will now follow and we ask all parties to respect this process so that it can unfold in an atmosphere of calm and security…”

http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/59870.htm

“Middle East Quartet Statement” (United Nations, European Union, Russian Federation, United States), January 30, 2006

“The Quartet congratulated the Palestinian people on an electoral process that was free, fair and secure.  The Quartet believes that the Palestinian people have the right to expect that a new Government will address their aspirations for peace and Statehood, and it welcomed President Abbas’ affirmation that the Palestinian Authority is committed to the Road Map, previous agreements and obligations between the parties, and a negotiated two-State solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  It is the view of the Quartet that all members of a future Palestinian Government must be committed to non-violence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the Road Map.  We urge both parties to respect their existing agreements, including on movement and access…”

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sg2104.doc.htm

“Israel: Statement From the Prime Minister's Bureau on PA election”, Prime Minister's Office, January 26, 2006

"Today, it became known that the PA elections have resulted in a victory for Hamas.  There is no doubt that - from Israel's point-of-view - a new situation has been created.  In the Roadmap, the PA committed itself to dismantling all of the terrorist organizations operating in its area.  Israel has upheld the Roadmap and has demanded - and continues to demand - that PA Chairman Abu Mazen implement the obligation to dismantle the terrorist organizations and their infrastructures…The State of Israel will not negotiate with a Palestinian administration if its members include an armed terrorist organization that calls for the destruction of the State of Israel; in any case, Israel will continue to fight terrorism with a heavy hand, everywhere…”

http://www.pmo.gov.il/PMOEng/Communication/Spokesman/2006/01/spokemes260106g.htm

For more on Israel’s current response see, “Olmert says Israel will talk to Abbas” Laurie Copans, Associated Press, Feb 6, 2006  http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060206/ap_on_re_mi_ea/israel_palestinians_8

“Arab League: Hamas must recognize Israel”, Ha’aretz, January 28, 2006

“Hamas will have to accept the Beirut initiative, which calls for full Arab recognition of Israel, despite its declared stands, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa said Friday, following the Hamas victory in the Palestinian legislative elections.  Moussa added that the diplomatic process in the Middle East must follow the Beirut guidelines, which include a full Israeli withdrawal from the territories according to UN resolutions 242 and 338. The initiative, approved by the Arab League in 2002 was rejected by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.  Moussa was speaking at a conference on the PA election results held during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland…”

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/675205.html

For responses from Egypt and Jordan see, “Arabs Pressure Hamas to Renounce Violence”, Salah Nasrawi, The Associated Press, February 1, 2006: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/01/AR2006020101552.html

Below are two statements from world church leaders following the Palestinian elections.  The first is from all of the Jerusalem Patriarchs and heads of churches (Orthodox, Catholic, Episcopal and Lutheran).  The second is from the Lutheran World Federation, which has long-established institutions in the Holy Land, including the Augusta Victoria Hospital on the Mount of Olives.     

“The Patriarchs and Heads of the Churches of Jerusalem: The Palestinian Election”, Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem, February 1, 2006

“We congratulate the Palestinian people for their democratic performance in the recent parliamentary elections. We express our respect and our support to the will of the people expressed in these elections. We congratulate all those who were elected.  Our message as Christian leaders in this new phase of our history is the message of our faith and our concern for all. Some may be afraid or troubled because of this new phase. We respond, first, with the words of Jesus Christ: “Do not let your hearts be troubled or afraid. Peace I bequeath to you; my own peace I give you, a peace which the world cannot give” (Jn 14:27). Second, “Be strong and stand firm” (Jos 1:9). We call upon the Palestinian people to continue their contribution to the making of their history whatever may be the difficulties or obstacles, internal or external.

We pray for all those who will govern in this difficult period, and we extend our cooperation to them for the public good and the national Palestinian aspirations together with the cause of justice and peace in a non violent way, whether in regard to foreign relations, the rule of law together with full religious freedom, especially in the social and educational fields.  Our message to the Government of Hamas, members and leadership, is the message of Our Lord Jesus Christ in his Sermon on the Mountain: “Blessed are the poor in spirit: the kingdom of heaven is theirs. Blessed are the gentle: they shall have the earth as their inheritance. Blessed are those who mourn: they shall be comforted. Blessed are those who hunger and thirst for uprightness: they shall have their fill. Blessed are the merciful: they shall have mercy shown them. Blessed are the pure in heart: they shall see God. Blessed are the peacemakers: they shall be recognized as children of God” (Mt 5:3-10).  We ask God to guide us towards what is good for all and for this Holy Land with all its inhabitants, Palestinians and Israelis, be they Moslems, Christians or Jews.” 

+ Patriarch Theophilos III: Greek Orthodox Patriarchate

+ Patriarch Michel Sabbah: Latin Patriarchate.

+ Patriarch Torkom II: Armenian Apostolic Orthodox Patriarchate.

Father Pierbattista Pizzaballa, ofm, Custos of the Holy Land

+ Anba Abraham: Coptic Orthodox Patriarchate.

+ Swerios Malki Mourad: Syrian Orthodox Patriarchate.

+ Abune Grima: Ethiopian Orthodox Patriarchate

+ Paul Nabil Sayyah: Maronite Patriarchal Exarchate.

+ Bishop Riah Abu El-Assal: Episcopal Church of Jerusalem & the Middle East.

+ Bishop Mounib Younan: Lutheran Evangelical Church.

+ Pierre Melki, Exarch for the Syrian Catholics - Jerusalem

+ André Dikran Bedoghlyan: Armenian Catholic Patriarchal Exarchate.

Archimandrite Mtanious Haddad: Greek Catholic Patriarchal Exarchate. 

“Lutheran World Federation Welcomes Democratic Palestinian Election Process, Urges Commitment to Peace Efforts with Israel”, LWF General Secretary, Rev. Dr Ishmael Noko, January 31, 2006

“The Lutheran World Federation (LWF) welcomes the recent democratic Palestinian election process, and urges the victorious party Hamas to honor its responsibility for sound leadership toward all Palestinian people and commit itself to peace efforts with Israel.   ‘For the sake of the Palestinian people and the future State of Palestine, Hamas must transform itself in its policies and approaches concerning the State of Israel, and commit itself to dialogue and negotiations,’ LWF General Secretary, Rev. Dr Ishmael Noko says in a statement issued today. Noko expresses the LWF’s conviction that Hamas’ new responsibility to form the next Palestinian government has the potential to be a catalyst for the group’s transformation. ‘Having secured this political victory, Hamas now has an obligation to provide sound, democratic and honest leadership for all Palestinians, regardless of religious or political allegiance. They must work for the unity of the Palestinian people, and for freedom of religion, in order to foster a genuinely civil society,’ he says…”

http://www.lutheranworld.org/News/LWI/EN/1818.EN.html

   4. Analyses of Palestinian Election Results & Observations

In the final results of the election, Hamas (Change and Reform list) obtained 74 seats and Fatah obtained 45 seats of the 132 available seats, with a combination of 5 other parties winning the remaining 13 seats.  For more details see the final report of the Palestinian Central Elections Commission at: http://www.elections.ps/template.aspx?id=291.  Below are some helpful analyses of the results of the election, as well as a preliminary statement from the National Democratic Institute/Carter Center US monitoring mission, which included current and former legislators, former ambassadors, elections and human rights experts, civic leaders and regional specialists from the US and 21 other countries. 

“Optical Illusion: The Hidden Results of the Palestinian Elections”, Gershon Baskin, Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information (IPCRI) January 31, 2006

“In the final outcome of the Palestinian elections the Hamas party took 74 seats of the 132 available seats.  This equals 56%.  The division of the seats between the national lists and the district lists were 29 from the national list and 45 in the district lists (74 seats in total).  The hidden statistics paint a very different figure.  On the national list the Hamas received 43.94% of the vote meaning that 56.06% of the Palestinian voters did not vote for the Hamas on the national list.  On the district lists Hamas gained 68.18% of the seats with non-Hamas candidates taking on 31.82% of the seats.  But in reality, in the districts Hamas candidates received only 36.45% of the votes while non-Hamas candidates received 63.54% of the votes. In reality, a clear majority of Palestinians voted against the Hamas.  What happened is that Hamas presented a unified list in each district while Fatah and others had a multiplicity of candidates which caused great divisions.  While this explanation does not alter the results of the elections, it is somewhat more comforting to recognize that the voice of the Palestinian electorate did not give a majority of support to Hamas.”   

“The Polls: What the Palestinians Really Voted For”, Khalil Shikaki, Newsweek International, February 6, 2006

In January, Palestinian pollster, Khalil Shikaki, authored a study as part of The United States Institute of Peace’s Project on Arab- Israeli Futures entitled, “Willing to Compromise: Palestinian Public Opinion and the Peace Process.”  The report can be found at:  http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr158.html

“The results of last week's Palestinian elections certainly were a shock to the political system. While everyone expected Hamas to do very well, no polls predicted that the Islamist party would win a majority of the seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council. But despite all the hand-wringing over whether Palestinians have suddenly taken a more extremist turn, a closer look at the numbers reveals a more complex picture…. Indeed, the most interesting aspect of the rise of Hamas is that its own voters, as demonstrated in exit polls, do not share its views on the peace process. Three quarters of all Palestinians, including more than 60 percent of Hamas supporters, are willing to support reconciliation between Palestinians and Israelis based on a two-state solution….The two most important issues for the voters were corruption in the Palestinian Authority—which is dominated by Fatah—and the inability of the PA to enforce law and order…This was a tactical victory for Hamas, not a strategic one; voters want political solutions, not political Islam. Survey research during the last decade clearly demonstrates strong public support for liberal democracy among Palestinians. Indeed, most view Israel's democracy more positively than any other in the world, followed by America's. Similarly, most Palestinians see gender equality as one of the most important American achievements. If Hamas wants to solidify its support, its leaders would do well to keep all this in mind.” 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11080943/site/newsweek/

“Preliminary Statement of the NDI/Carter Center International Observer Delegation to the Palestinian Legislative Council Elections”, January 26, 2006

“Under the difficult circumstances of the ongoing conflict and occupation, Palestinian voters turned out in large numbers in a strong expression of their desire to choose representatives through open and competitive elections…Through the high turnout in these elections and in the 2005 presidential election, as well as the notable participation in five rounds of municipal elections over the last year, Palestinians have clearly demonstrated a commitment to democratic elections. It is now up to the elected leaders and representatives to construct genuinely democratic institutions and processes that will bring the peace and prosperity that the Palestinian people deserve, within a free and independent state.  The January 25 elections can be an important step on the road to greater democracy for the Palestinian people. They present a unique challenge in that they included a group that advocated the use of violence as a means of achieving a political end and refuse to give up arms. Also, it has been committed to the destruction of a United Nations member state. It is universally accepted that democratic elections and democratic governance are about employing peaceful means to achieve political goals. We hope that the elections will mark a decisive move toward the renunciation of violence by all groups and toward addressing corruption and other issues that are central to improving the lives of Palestinians…”

http://www.cartercenter.org/doc2283.htm

For more information contact Julie Schumacher Cohen, CMEP’s Legislative Assistant at 202-543-1222 or at Julie@cmep.org.