In 1998, the linkage between the Israeli/Arab peace process and developments in the Gulf will be more evident. The U.S. government will no longer be able to maintain the artificial separation of policies that has characterized the Clinton Administration. Unless Secretary of State Madeleine Albright quickly invigorates negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians, the bright hope that began the Clinton Administration will end as failure. Negotiation chances for Israel and Syria, and thus Lebanon, are dim, while a flare-up in southern Lebanon is likely. The Israeli-Jordanian relationship begins the new year as chilly if not cold.

The need to move oil from the huge reserves near the Caspian Sea to seaports for shipment brings a new dimension to regional dynamics. Competition among potential pipeline routes will likely affect U.S. relations with Russia, Iran and Turkey.

With the Clinton presidency now in its final term, the Republican-majority Congress can be expected to make increasing efforts to deny foreign policy successes to the Democratic Administration. The partisan competition to woo campaign contributions from the well-organized and well-funded pro-Israel community will almost certainly lead to irresponsible legislative initiatives from potential candidates.

Following are some key themes and predictions that will likely shape advocacy efforts in 1998.

The foundering Israeli-Arab peace process is damaging U.S.-Gulf relations. Supporters of Israel adamantly denounce as "baseless" Secretary Albright's claim that lack of progress in the peace talks is undermining broader U.S. interests in the region. But there is increasing evidence that such a linkage does exist--for example, the poor attendance of Arab partners at the recent peace process-related economic conference in Doha, Qatar, which stood in contrast to the broad and high-level participation in the summit meeting of 55 Islamic countries held in Teheran.

Congress is planning a Jerusalem embassy move. This is a favorite issue for Congress, especially during election years. It will certainly be hot again in 1998. President Clinton will be under domestic pressure from the pro-Israel lobby and the Christian right to recognize Israel's claim of exclusive sovereignty over Jerusalem. At the same time, with final status negotiations on the city's future overdue, much of the international community as well as mainstream Christians in this country are pressing the Administration to take leadership in seeking a mutually acceptable accord.

Palestinian statehood is a possibility. The Administration may follow the advice of some policy analysts and call for Palestinian statehood as a goal of the peace process. This will surely bring vehement protest in Congress. The tactic could revive Palestinian hopes; on the other hand, a proposal for an entity severely limited in size and sovereignty could well be rejected by the Palestinians.

Foreign aid to Israel and Egypt has been capped and may be reduced. In 1997, for the first time, leaders of the House Appropriations Committee spoke out about the preponderance of U.S. foreign aid going to the Middle East. Any new requests for the region from the Administration must now be reallocated from existing accounts-- meaning Israel and Egypt. For a short time, these Republican renegades even held up some aid to Israel pending extradition of a murder suspect who had fled Maryland. This could conceivably open space for a real debate on Israel's aid package, but this is by no means sure. Cuts in aid to Egypt are more likely, especially since it has not cooperated with a number of Administration efforts.

The "dual containment" policy is likely to fracture as Iran changes. There are signs that the effort to isolate and punish both Iran and Iraq may be losing favor. Last year's election of a new president in Iran who is considered a moderate brought hope that the hostility between the United States and Iran might ease, paving the way for diplomatic relations. The major obstacle remains the question of Iran's ambitions to obtain weapons of mass destruction with the assistance of China and Russia. Congress will continue to vigorously seek legislation that keeps the focus on Iran as a threat to U.S. and Israeli interests. However, U.S. economic sanctions against foreign interests that invest in development of Iran's petrochemical sector are strongly opposed by the Europeans and, increasingly, by the U.S. business community. With Iran a logical route for the transport of Caspian oil, this issue will be contentious.

There is a need to broaden Middle East arms control efforts. The U.S. policy objective of curbing the military threat posed by Iran and Iraq will continue to garner wide support in the U.S. and internationally. But there is still little challenge domestically to the continuation of massive arms sales and transfers by the U.S. government throughout the region and the basing of U.S. forces in Arab Gulf countries.

The campaign for a global ban on landmines, which won a Nobel prize for organizers, was not successful in the Middle East. Countries that did not sign the Ottawa treaty to ban landmines include Egypt, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Libya, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Iran and Turkey. The treaty was signed by Yemen and Tunisia.

Humanitarian consequences make the sanctions on Iraq untenable. The Arab states and many of the European countries that joined this country in the 1991 war to force Iraq from Kuwait will no longer support Washington's unrelenting punishment of Iraq and its people. Protests about the morality and efficacy of the strategy have mounted as the humanitarian crisis linked to the sanctions becomes more severe. Change in some form will likely come in 1998, but the Administration will likely face criticism for whichever option it chooses. One scenario would be for the U.N. embargo on oil sales to be lifted, leaving Saddam Hussein in power, with the critically important U.N. weapons inspection and weapons-related sanctions continuing. Alternatively, the United States might use unilateral military action or covert methods against the Iraqi regime and still fail to bring it down. Perhaps the best option is to allow increased sale of Iraqi oil for the sake of humanitarian needs while keeping pressure on Saddam through a full sanctions regime.

The Turkey-Israel alliance troubles their neighbors. The 1996 military accord between the two countries received little attention here. But now, with their militaries staging joint exercises with the U.S. Navy in the Mediterranean and sharing intelligence on common enemies, Washington's Arab allies are objecting. Particularly provoking are reports that Israel is prepared to provide Turkey with weapons that Congress has denied the Turks because of human rights abuses against the Kurds. Kurdish human rights, especially in Turkey, will continue to receive increasing attention from Congress. A congressional spouse took part in a hunger strike on the Capitol steps in November to free an imprisoned Kurdish member of Turkey's parliament.

Attention to the persecution of Christians will continue. The Freedom from Religious Persecution Act of 1997, also known as the Wolf-Specter bill, was modified late last year to reflect broader concern for persecuted religious minorities in addition to Christians. The bill initially made no reference to the persecution of Muslims and but contained many examples of Christians being persecuted by Muslim majority governments as well as by the government of China. CMEP member churches approach the legislation in its global context rather than as a specifically Middle East issue. However, the bill continues to be viewed by Muslims here and abroad as another effort to build anti-Islamic sentiment in the United States. Championed by the Christian Coalition, the bill or a variation of it is expected to be high on the congressional agenda in the spring. Hearings on religious persecution in specific countries are likely.